Plug-in hybrids: A choice for the conscience, but not the checkbook–yet
The big buzz at this year’s annual meeting of the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) came from imminent plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and pure electric vehicles (EVs). The Chevrolet Volt, billed as an extended-range EV since it has a gasoline engine backing up its electric powertrain, and the Nissan Leaf, a fully-developed EV, seemed to generate the most interest. The EDTA’s event was run parallel with the annual SAE conference and was held in Washington, D.C. this year. It’s a major event that brings together power utilities, government, academia, and contingents of independents and entrepreneurs. We tested the PHEV waters in 2008, when we had our Toyota Prius elevated to PHEV status with an aftermarket conversion. Our plug-in Prius, adapted with a kit from battery-developer A123, averaged 67 mpg for the first 35 miles following a full charge, after which fuel economy retreated to 42 mpg, the same as a regular 2008 Prius Touring model. Having paid $11,000 for the conversion, we calculated that our break-even point on fuel savings would take 87 years. So the technology was viable but the economics were not, at least not with gas selling for less than $3 a gallon. Suddenly every self-respecting manufacturer, and some that aren’t, have announced plans to launch an EV or a PHEV in the next few years. On paper, PHEVs look wonderful, bringing most of the benefits of an electric car but without an EV’s range anxiety, recharge urgency, and big, space-robbing battery. At that event, an impressive group of cutting-edge visionaries laid out detailed scenarios regarding battery size, customer profile, recharging venues, and demands on the grid. Among the environmental community, one can sense a huge thirst for whatever it will take to take us beyond the hybrids we know today. And if we accept that pure EVs aren’t quite ready for prime time yet, then by default PHEVs are the next big thing. The Obama administration wants to see a million PHEVs in the U.S by 2015. Sounds great, but let’s take a reality check: It took the Toyota Prius 10 years and three generations to sell a million units worldwide. And the Prius is a fully functional family car, with a practical size, affordable price and half the fuel consumption of many competitors. And it makes sense in pocket-book finance terms even with zero government tax breaks, a leg-up that expired for the Prius years ago. PHEVs, on the other hand, need bigger, heavier, and costlier batteries and associated technology than hybrids do and are expected to come at a premium. And besides, there are few hybrids besides the Prius that sell well. Don’t get me wrong. I want to reduce dependence on foreign oil as much as any sane person, and I want to pass a greener and safer world along to my grandchildren. But we need to keep it real to make it green. The early adopters who latched onto the first hybrids out of idealism are the same educated, well-heeled people who will…
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